NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Level 1 / Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Thunderstorms with an isolated hail threat will be possible this evening over parts of central and northeast Kansas. A brief tornado will be possible in parts of southwest Texas early this evening.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Thu (10/29)	Fri (10/30)	Sat (10/31)	Sun (11/01)	Mon (11/02)	Tue (11/03)	Wed (11/04)	Thu (11/05)
Severe	Marginal	Marginal	No Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	No Critical	No Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 30 Oct

Sig Severe Probabilities: 30 Oct

Tornado Probabilities: 30 Oct

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 30 Oct

Severe Hail Probabilities: 30 Oct

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 30 Oct

Significant Wind Probabilities: 30 Oct

Significant Hail Probabilities: 30 Oct

More climatology data here.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: October 29 2026 12:28 UTC

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: October 29 2026 12:28 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Oct

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Oct

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Oct

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Oct

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2026: On a Comprehensive Archive for Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6300K PDF]
Chalmers, Z. A., M. D. Parker, 2026: Variability in High-Shear, Low-CAPE QLCS Environments in the Southeastern United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [21500K PDF]
Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Oct 28, 2026	Tornado: 1	Wind: 4	Hail: 11

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